What is going on with Pennsylvania's State House?
Democrats have won a majority. But will they get what they earned?
What an election! 2022 was perhaps one of the strangest elections of a lifetime, to say the least. Amidst some of the shockers such as Katie Hobbs’ victory in Arizona, to the close race for control of Congress, some races flew right under the radar. In Michigan and Minnesota, Democrats gained control of the State Government there. And for a variety of reasons, from the coattails of Shapiro and Fetterman’s wins to a fairer map, Democrats have narrowly flipped the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, 102-101. Democrats now have both Senate seats, the US House delegation, the Governorship, and Lt. Governorship, the office of Attorney General, and now the State House, effectively leaving Republicans with just the State Senate.
But they’re not getting that majority in January. And it’s unclear when they will get a majority.
Where things stand right now.
One of the 102 Democrats elected in November, Tony DeLuca (D-Allegheny County), passed away in October. When the new legislature is sworn in on January 3rd (the first Tuesday of January), the new House will be 101 Democrats and 101 Republicans. But it gets worse for Democrats. Two of the candidates re-elected - Summer Lee and Austin Davis (Both D-Allegheny), will be taking up fresh new jobs soon, as Lee heads to Washington and Davis becomes Lieutenant Governor. It’s unknown when they will resign their seats. By the end of that, Democrats will be at 99 seats, and Republicans will be in the majority still. Special elections cannot be called until they resign their seats, and they can’t resign presumably until the new legislature is sworn in.
During these first few hectic months, both sides, even Republicans, will be rushing around in an attempt to elect a Speaker, and even the resignations don’t guarantee it will be easy for Republicans to pull together. Both sides have reasons to get a Speaker ASAP.
Democrats want to use the power of the Speaker to call the two special elections ASAP so they have a majority that doesn’t hinge on some Republican votes
Republicans want to hold the Speakership for the final few months to get a few constitutional amendments on the primary ballot, such as an abortion ban. (These proposals don’t even require the Governor to be on the ballot - just the State House and State Senate).
Special Elections
As of now, we currently know that the special election for Tony DeLuca’s seat will be on February 7th. Incumbent Speaker Bryan Cuttler called the special election relatively close to the 60 days in advance needed, a move which could hurt his standing amongst House Republicans. At the latest, the other two special elections for resigning members would be on the ballot of the May Primaries. So the seats will be filled by late February at the earliest, and by May at the latest.
Thankfully for Democrats, all 3 seats are relatively solidly Democrat. Summer Lee and Tony DeLuca didn’t even have Republicans running against them, and despite being on the ballot twice, Austin Davis still dispatched his challenger with an almost 2 to 1 margin.
The Special Election for DeLuca’s seat could face a big name challenger, Carrie DelRosso. She was the Republican Lieutenant Governor nominee, doomed to the fate of being tied to a ticket with Mastriano. The last time DelLuca faced a challenger, he beat them 3 to 1. That is a huge hurdle to overcome, assuming she even runs, and DelRosso’s name recognition could be a disadvantage with her being tied to Mastriano. The best hope for Republicans to prevent the inevitable is some odd turnout special election happening here as they gather in an attempt to flip back lost seats in 2024, and that’s a HUGE stretch of the imagination.
Closing
Ultimately, while they’ll be out of power for just a few more months, Democrats have clawed back control of the Pennsylvania State House for the first time in 12 years. It’ll be interesting to see what goes on in the next two years. Does Shapiro have the political capital to pass a few things with the Republican-controlled State Senate like legal weed or education reform? Will Republican attitude towards the Governor change without the power of submitting primary ballot amendment? Washington will be a headache to navigate through the next few years - and Harrisburg is no different.